Forex Major Currencies Outlook (September 17, 2013)

This is because Yellen is seen as a dove and is likely to keep the stimulus programs in place for the foreseeable future. As for economic data, both reports from the US came in weaker than expected yesterday. The Empire State manufacturing index fell from 8.2 to 6.3 instead of improving to 9.2 while industrial production was lower than expected at 0.4%. For today, there are no major releases from the US as traders might start pricing in expectations for the FOMC statement or start unwinding their dollar positions early. 

EUR

The euro rallied yesterday but stopped a few pips shy of the 1.3400 handle against the dollar. Data from the euro zone was weaker than expected but Draghi’s speech contained no surprises, as he already said most of his forward guidance and monetary policy remarks during the ECB statement recently. For today, trade balance and current account balance are due from the euro zone but these aren’t likely to cause huge waves among euro pairs. The German ZEW sentiment figure is likely to have a bigger impact and a small improvement is expected. 

GBP

The pound extended its gains to the dollar but was unable to reach the 1.6000 major psychological level despite yesterday’s rallies. There were no reports released from the UK yesterday, as traders are just gearing up for today’s CPI reports. Weaker headline inflation is eyed at 2.7% versus the previous 2.8%, but a higher than expected reading might prompt calls for monetary policy tightening and should be positive for the pound. 

CHF

 
There were no reports released from Switzerland yesterday and none are due today. This means that franc trading could depend mostly on US and euro zone data, as USD/CHF and EUR/CHF have been moving back and forth lately. 

JPY
Japanese traders were on holiday yesterday, which is why most yen pairs were simply stuck in their ranges. For today, Japanese traders will return and possibly result to more moves among yen pairs for the rest of the Asian session. There are no news releases from Japan though, as yen pairs could also be sensitive to market sentiment. 

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were able to edge a little higher against the dollar yesterday but it seems the rallies were short-lived. This was probably because most traders already started unwinding their dollar shorts ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC event. Canadian foreign securities purchases came out better than expected and today’s manufacturing sales release is also expected to print good results. There are no major reports due from Australia and New Zealand today. 

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way