Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Sept 2, 2015)

The ISM manufacturing PMI fell from 52.7 to 51.1, worse than the estimated dip to 52.6. The employment component recorded a drop of 1.5, reflecting weaker conditions and a potential downside surprise in the NFP. For today, the ADP non-farm employment change report is due and it might show a 204K increase in hiring, stronger than the previous 185K gain.

EUR

The euro was able to hold on to its recent gains, thanks to stronger than expected data from Germany and Italy. The euro zone’s largest economy showed a 7K increase in employment while Italy reported improvements in its monthly and quarterly jobless rates. The Spanish unemployment change report is due today and it might show a 35.3K increase in joblessness, following the previous 74K reduction.

GBP

The pound gave up ground in recent trading sessions due to weaker than expected UK manufacturing PMI. The index slumped from 51.9 to 51.5 instead of holding steady, reflecting a downturn in industry activity. For today, the construction PMI is due and it might show a climb from 57.1 to 57.6, with stronger than expected results likely to spur a pound recovery.

CHF

The franc regained some ground in yesterday’s sessions, as the Swiss manufacturing PMI landed back above 50.0. The index improved from 48.7 to 52.2, higher than the projected 49.9 figure, indicating a strong expansion in the industry. No reports are due from Switzerland today.

JPY

The yen continued to stay strong against its rivals, particularly the commodity currencies, as risk appetite remained weak in recent trading sessions. Chinese equities recorded more declines, confirming that the slowdown isn’t over yet. Data from Japan was weaker than expected, with capital spending rising by only 5.6% in the previous quarter versus the projected 9.0% gain. No reports are due from Japan today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls resumed their selloff even though New Zealand and Canada reported positive data. The Canadian economy expanded by 0.5% in June, stronger than the projected 0.2% growth, while the Global Dairy Trade auction indicated a 10.9% gain in prices. Weak PMI readings from China may be to blame for the recent drop in risk appetite, as the RBA also sounded somewhat positive with their statement yesterday.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way