Forex Major Currencies Outlook (October 2, 2013)

However, the currency soon recouped its losses when the ISM manufacturing PMI came in better than expected. The reading climbed from 55.7 to 56.2 instead of dropping to 55.3. For today, the ADP non-farm employment change reading is up for release and it is expected to show a 177K increase, higher than the previous 176K reading. A better than expected figure could provide strong support for the U.S. dollar as there might be no NFP release because of the government shutdown. 

EUR

The euro is still on its short-term uptrend, but the pair fell back below the 1.3550 resistance after spiking to new highs. The US government shutdown triggered a sharp dollar selloff but the ongoing political trouble in Italy weighed again on the shared currency. For today, the Spanish unemployment change report is up for release but the bigger event is the ECB rate decision. Recall that Draghi mentioned that policymakers considered cutting interest rates in their previous rate decision and that they are also looking to implement more LTRO. 

GBP

The pound struggled to hold on to its recent gains to the dollar but it gave up ground to the Japanese yen. UK manufacturing PMI came in weaker than expected at 56.7, down from 57.1, putting an end to its 5-month streak of improvements. For today, the construction PMI is up for release and a climb is expected. Given the weak results of the manufacturing PMI though, we could be in for a downside surprise that might weigh on the pound. 

CHF
Switzerland didn’t release any economic reports yesterday, as the franc simply took advantage of dollar and euro weaknesses. USD/CHF breached the .9100 mark and traded close to .9000 but it pulled right back up during the US session, as the ISM manufacturing PMI printed strong results. There are no reports due from Switzerland again today so EUR/CHF and USD/CHF could continue to react to country-specific events, such as the ADP release and the ECB rate decision. 

JPY

The yen was able to gain against most of its rivals, except for the Australian dollar. Data from Japan was mixed, as household spending and hiring fell short of consensus but the Tankan manufacturing index printed a rise from 7 to 12. This was enough to ensure that Abe will push through with the sales tax increase from 5% to 8% in April next year but he will be looking to implement reforms to counteract this. 

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Australian dollar was the best performer in yesterday’s trading, as AUD/USD traded above the .9400 handle on the heels of a US government shutdown and an upbeat RBA statement. The Australian central bank kept rates on hold at 2.50% and said that the recent rate cut is just starting to make an impact. Meanwhile, there were no major reports from Canada and New Zealand. Earlier today, Australia reported a drop in building approvals and a weaker than expected trade balance. There are no more reports due from the comdoll economies for the rest of the day. 

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way