Forex Major Currencies Outlook (October 28, 2013)

Risk was still off on Friday but the dollar was sold off because of bleak data from the US. Core durable goods orders printed a 0.1% decline while the headline figure showed a 3.7% rise. Meanwhile, the UoM consumer sentiment reading had a downward revision to 73.2, which shows that confidence was weaker than initially estimated. For today, pending home sales are up for release and a small rebound of 0.5% is expected to follow the previous 1.6% decline. 

EUR

The euro ignored weaker than expected data from Germany on Friday as it managed to consolidate against the dollar and rebound against the yen. German Ifo business climate declined from 107.7 to 107.4 instead of posting an improvement, but this wasn’t much cause for concern as the index is still somewhere close to its recent highs. There are no reports due from the euro zone today so euro pairs might keep consolidating. 

GBP

The pound lost ground to its counterparts on Friday even though the UK GDP for Q3 2013 came in line with consensus. The report printed 0.8% growth for the quarter while the previous quarter’s report showed an upward revision from 0.6% to 0.7%. It appears that traders were not convinced that the growth figures are showing enough upward momentum. For today, the CBI realized sales figure is due and a drop from 34 to 33 is projected. A weaker than expected figure might result to more losses for the pound. 

CHF
The franc was unable to break below the .8900 major psychological level against the US dollar on Friday because there were no reports released from Switzerland then. Not even mixed US reports were able to rein in more franc bulls at that time. For today, there are no reports due from Switzerland so we might be in for another round of sideways movement for franc pairs. 

JPY

Yen pairs gapped up over the weekend as Asian markets opened higher. Over the weekend, China reported a strong surge in company operating profits for industrial firms, which led traders to believe that the recent rise in market rates might not weigh on growth so much. Also, Japanese PM Abe recently had an interview wherein he spoke of Japan challenging China’s recent reforms. No reports are due from Japan today but the rebound in sentiment might keep yen pairs supported. 

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

Comdolls were no match to the dollar’s strength on Friday as risk sentiment was still weak. NZD/USD suffered a sharper selloff on the heels of Wheeler’s comments saying that the Kiwi was already overvalued. The Loonie was also weighed down by the recent shift in stance by the BOC, as the central bank let go of its rate hike bias. There are no reports due from the comdolls today so it could be market sentiment driving these pairs again. 

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way