Forex Major Currencies Outlook (October 16, 2013)

Meanwhile, the Senate hasn’t come up with a plan regarding raising the debt ceiling before the deadline approaches on October 17. Data from the US was weaker than expected as the Empire State manufacturing index printed a decline instead of the expected improvement. For today, there are no major reports but the Fed Beige Book is up for release. Updates on the budget and debt talks could drive dollar movement today. 

EUR

The euro ignored strong data from Germany as it still lost ground to both the dollar and yen yesterday. German ZEW economic sentiment climbed above the 50.0 level, reflecting optimism about the outlook for the euro zone’s largest economy. Meanwhile, the ZEW figure for the entire region was slightly weaker than expected but still indicative of optimism. For today, only euro zone CPI figures are up for release and these aren’t expected to have a huge impact on euro price action. 

GBP

The pound managed to consolidate against the US dollar in yesterday’s trading as CPI figures came in stronger than expected. The headline figure showed a 2.7% increase while the core figure printed a 2.2% rise. This was enough to convince traders that the BOE isn’t likely to increase stimulus soon and might even consider reducing easing if inflation keeps rising. For today, UK jobs data are up for release and a 24.3K drop in claimants is expected. If that’s the case, the jobless rate could hold steady at 7.7%.

CHF

The franc lost ground to the dollar in yesterday’s trading as there were no reports from Switzerland to keep it supported. Swiss ZEW economic expectations data is up for release today and another increase could be reported, which might allow the franc to rebound against the dollar. 

JPY

The yen was able to end stronger against its major currency counterparts yesterday when risk aversion stayed in the markets. There are no reports due from Japan today so traders will probably use risk sentiment to drive yen flows. Take note also that the parliamentary session geared towards fine tuning the details of the next set of stimulus efforts is already underway so any updates could also move yen pairs. 

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls managed to stay resilient against the dollar, particularly the Aussie and the Kiwi. The Loonie was unable to hold its ground as a potential default in the US would also be very damaging to Canada’s economy. New Zealand CPI came in stronger than expected at 0.9%, which means that the RBNZ would have enough room to reduce stimulus if needed. Canadian manufacturing sales are due in today’s US session and could show a 0.3% increase. 

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way