Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Oct 7, 2015)

The trade deficit widened from 41.8 billion USD to 48.3 billion USD, indicating a 2% decline in exports and an increase in shipments coming from China. For today, only the crude oil inventories report is due and this might have more of an impact on the Loonie rather than the Greenback.

EUR

The euro resumed its advance to the dollar in recent trading sessions, despite weaker than expected data from Germany. Instead of printing the estimated 0.5% rebound, Germany factory orders slipped by 1.8% and the previous reading was downgraded to show a 2.2% tumble. German industrial production and French trade balance numbers are due today and more weak figures could erase the euro's recent gains.

GBP

The pound managed to make a bit of recovery in yesterday's trading sessions, even though the Halifax HPI from the UK came in below expectations. The report showed a 0.9% drop in house prices instead of the projected 0.1% uptick. For today, the UK manufacturing production figure is due and it might show a 0.4% rebound from the previous 0.8% decline. 

CHF

The franc advanced against its forex peers when the Swiss CPI came in line with expectations of a 0.1% uptick. For today, data on foreign currency reserves is due and a large increase in holdings could suggest currency intervention by the SNB, which might drive the franc lower again.

JPY

The yen was still in a weak spot leading up to today's BOJ rate statement, as investors are pricing in dovish remarks from the central bank. Data from Japan has been mostly disappointing recently, which might factor in the central bank's decision. No actual policy changes are expected for now.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls continued to advance against their peers in recent trading sessions, supported by the pickup in dairy prices in New Zealand and the RBA's decision to stand pat. The latest GDT auction recorded a 9.9% increase in prices, marking its fourth consecutive bi-weekly gain and signaling a bottom in the dairy industry. In Canada, the trade balance and Ivey PMI came in weaker than expected. Canadian building permits data is due today and a 0.5% increase is expected.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way