Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Oct 24, 2014)

Data from the US was mostly weaker than expected, with the initial jobless claims showing a larger than expected 283K increase versus the projected 269K figure. The flash manufacturing PMI saw a drop to 56.2 for October while the previous reading was downgraded. US new home sales data is up for release today and it might show a decline from 504K to 473K, which might lead to a bit of dollar weakness. 

EUR 

The euro recovered slightly to the dollar and advanced to the yen in recent trading, as euro zone manufacturing and services PMI came in better than expected. Flash manufacturing PMI improved from 50.3 to 50.7 while the services index held steady at 52.4 instead of dipping to 52.0. In Germany, the manufacturing PMI landed back above 50.0 and reflected industry expansion while France saw more weakness in both manufacturing and services. German GfK consumer climate data is due today and this might dictate euro price action for the rest of the day. A drop from 8.6 to 8.1 is expected. 

GBP

The pound was on weak footing yesterday since UK retail sales showed weaker than expected results. Consumer spending fell by 0.3% in September, worse than the estimated 0.1% dip. BBA mortgage approvals was also weaker than expected, as the reading fell from 41.4K to 39.3K. UK GDP is up for release today and another disappointment might lead to more pound weakness, as this would validate concerns that the BOE isn’t ready to tighten policy next year. 

CHF

The franc moved sideways to the dollar, as there were no major reports from Switzerland. The currency did gain a bit of support from improved euro zone PMI, which was enough to keep it steady for the most part. For today, there are still no reports due from Switzerland, which suggests that euro zone data or risk sentiment could drive franc movement.

JPY 

The yen lost ground as risk appetite improved in recent trading and BOJ Governor Kuroda admitted that yen weakness is helping the economy achieve its inflation target. He also mentioned that their recent review of falling energy prices suggest that inflation could fall back to 1% and that the Japanese central bank might need to implement further stimulus. There are no major reports due from Japan today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Kiwi lost further ground in recent trading since New Zealand’s trade balance came in weaker than expected. The deficit widened from 489 million NZD to 1350 million NZD, suggesting weaker export activity. There are no reports due from the rest of the comdoll economies today, leaving the currencies sensitive to risk sentiment and potential profit-taking. 

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way