Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Oct 21, 2014)

There have been no major reports released from the US, although a couple of FOMC members gave testimonies. There are still no major reports due from the US today, with only the medium-tier existing home sales data on tap. The report could show an increase from 5.05 million to 5.11 million, which might be enough to keep the dollar supported. Risk sentiment could continue to play a major role in forex price action for the time being. 

EUR

The euro edged slightly higher in recent trading, despite weak data from the euro zone. German PPI stayed flat instead of posting the estimated 0.1% gain in producer prices while the euro zone current account balance showed a smaller than expected 18.9 billion EUR surplus versus the projected 21.3 billion EUR surplus. For today, there are no major reports due from the euro zone, leaving euro pairs sensitive to risk appetite. 

GBP

The pound was able to keep up its recent gains, even though there were no major reports released from the UK economy. The Rightmove HPI marked a 2.6% gain in house prices, stronger than the previous 0.9% uptick. UK public sector net borrowing data is up for release and the figure is slated to dip from 10.9 billion GBP to 9.3 billion GBP, which might be positive for the pound. 

CHF

The franc regained ground to the dollar, despite the lack of data from Switzerland. Swiss trade balance is set for release today and a wider surplus is expected. The report could show a trade surplus of 2.43 billion CHF, up from the previous 1.33 billion CHF. Stronger than expected data could keep the franc afloat against its forex counterparts.

JPY

The yen gave back some of its recent gains as risk appetite continued to improve in the markets recently. There have been no reports released from Japan at the start of the week and there are none lined up for today, suggesting that yen pairs could continue to take their cue from risk sentiment. 

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD) 

The comdolls took advantage of the pickup in risk-taking and advanced to the dollar and the yen in recent trading. Data from Canada came in line with expectations, as wholesale sales marked a 0.2% rebound from the previous 0.2% decline. In New Zealand, visitor arrivals marked a 0.9% increase after declining by 3.0% in the previous month. RBA monetary policy minutes are up for release today, along with Chinese GDP for Q3, which might be big movers for the Australian dollar and overall risk sentiment. Chinese GDP is slated to drop from 7.5% to 7.2%, which could confirm that the world’s second largest economy is slowing down. Weaker than expected data could lead to a return in risk aversion. 

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way