Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 8, 2015)

Early labor indicators have been printing mixed signals, with the ISM manufacturing PMI and ADP non-farm employment change readings hinting at weak figures and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI and initial jobless claims data suggesting an upside surprise. Analysts expect to see 228K in hiring gains for April, which might be enough to bring the jobless rate down from 5.5% to 5.4%. An upside surprise could renew the dollar’s rally while weak data could push it much lower.

EUR

The euro gave back some of its recent gains when data from the region came in weaker than expected. Germany reported a 0.9% increase in factory orders, lower than the projected 1.6% gain, while France showed a 0.3% decline in industrial production instead of the estimated 0.1% uptick. The French trade balance was also weaker than expected at a 4.6 billion EUR deficit versus the estimated 3.5 billion EUR shortfall. Germany will release its industrial production and trade balance figures today and more disappointments could spur more euro selling.

GBP

The pound surged up the charts when the UK elections ended and early polls suggested a potential Conservative victory. Still, the possibility of a hung parliament or a coalition government is weighing on the currency for now. UK trade balance and Halifax HPI are lined up for today but traders might pay closer attention to the election results when it comes to figuring out longer-term direction for the pound.

CHF

The franc weakened against most of its counterparts despite stronger than expected data from Switzerland. The SECO consumer climate report showed an unchanged reading of -6 versus the estimated slide to -11, indicating that there wasn’t any improvement in sentiment. Meanwhile, Swiss foreign currency reserves were also mostly unchanged, eliminating the possibility of central bank intervention for the previous months. Swiss CPI is due today and a 0.1% uptick in price levels is eyed.

JPY

The yen gave up ground to the dollar but advanced against the comdolls, as it functioned more as a counter currency in recent trading. There have been no major reports out of Japan then, leaving the currency to take its cue from risk sentiment. Earlier today, the BOJ minutes contained no surprises, but did result to a short pop higher among some yen pairs.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Aussie and Kiwi were still getting beaten up in recent trading sessions, thanks to the downbeat jobs data from both economies and the possibility of seeing more rate cuts from their central banks. Canada reported a stronger than expected building permits increase of 11.6% but this was overshadowed by the drop in oil prices. Later today, Canada will release its jobs report and possibly show a 4.5K drop in hiring.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way