Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 30, 2013)

Fed official Rosengren’s speech was probably the highlight of the New York session yesterday and even if he did say that he supported a modest reduction of asset purchases in a few months, it wasn’t enough to spark a fresh round of dollar buying. For today, the U.S. will be printing its preliminary GDP reading for the first quarter of the year and no revisions from the advanced reading of 2.5% is expected. Initial jobless claims and housing sector data could also drive dollar action today.

EUR

The OECD lowered its global growth forecasts, citing Europe as one of the  major drags to overall economic growth. German data came in mixed yesterday, with a stronger than expected inflation figure and a weaker than expected jobs report. German CPI increased by 0.4% while unemployment grew by 21K, much higher than the estimated 4K increase in joblessness. Only medium-tier reports, namely the retail PMI and Italian bond auction outcome, are due from the euro zone today.

GBP

The U.K. printed a weaker than expected CBI realized sales figure as the reading slipped from -1 to -11 instead of improving to 4. However, GBP/USD still managed to rebound off its recent lows and climb back to the 1.5150 area earlier today. Only the Nationwide HPI is due from the UK in today’s London session and this report isn’t expected to have a material effect on pound price action.

JPY

The yen rallied against its counterparts once more, bringing USD/JPY back to the 101.00 region. No reports are due from Japan today, as traders could position themselves ahead of the CPI figures due tomorrow. Both Tokyo and the national level are projected to show declines in price levels but smaller ones compared to the previous period.

CHF

Swiss UBS consumption indicator improved from 1.24 to 1.46, lending strong support to the franc. USD/CHF fell back to the .9600 area as a result. Today’s Swiss GDP release could determine whether this level would hold, as the economy is expected to have grown by another 0.2% in the first quarter of the year.

Commodity Currencies

The commodity currencies were able to recover against the U.S. dollar in yesterday’s trading as most traders took profits off key levels, such as .9600 for AUD/USD. The BOC retained its relatively hawkish bias as it said that some modest withdrawal of stimulus might be needed. Australian building approvals came in strong at 9.1% but private capital expenditure posted a 4.7% quarterly drop.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way