Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 22, 2015)

Data from the US economy came in weaker than expected once more, as the flash manufacturing PMI dipped from 54.1 to 53.8 while the Philly Fed index dropped from 7.5 to 6.7 instead of improving to the estimated 8.1 reading. Existing home sales data was also subpar, as the figure fell from 5.21M to 5.04M instead of increasing to the projected 5.23M figure. US CPI figures are due today and the headline figure could show a 0.1% uptick while the core figure might show a 0.2% gain. Fed head Yellen is also set to give a testimony today and possibly spur additional volatility among dollar pairs.

EUR

The euro continued to slump against its currency rivals in yesterday’s trading, as PMI readings from the region’s top economies were mostly below expectations. German flash manufacturing PMI fell from 52.1 to 51.4, lower than the projected 51.9 reading, while the services PMI slipped from 54.0 to 52.9, lower than the projected 53.9 figure. In France, the flash manufacturing PMI improved from 48.0 to 49.3 while the services PMI climbed from 51.4 to 51.6, short of the 52.0 consensus.  Euro zone consumer confidence dipped from -5 to -6 instead of holding steady. For today, a speech by ECB Governor Draghi and the German Ifo business climate are lined up.

GBP

The pound recovered from its recent selloff, thanks to stronger than expected UK retail sales. The report showed a 1.2% gain versus the projected 0.4% uptick and the previous 0.7% decline. However, CBI industrial orders slumped from 1 to -5 instead of showing an improvement to 3. Today, data on public sector net borrowing is due, along with a speech by BOE Governor Carney.

CHF

The franc resumed its drop against most of its forex rivals, although it managed to squeeze out a few gains against the euro. There have been no major reports out of Switzerland yesterday and none are lined up today, suggesting that the franc might continue to move to the tune of risk sentiment.

JPY

The yen recouped some of its recent losses, as traders booked profits ahead of today’s BOJ interest rate statement. No actual monetary policy changes are expected but it would be interesting to see if Governor Kuroda will maintain his optimistic outlook, given the ongoing downturn in Japan.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls bounced off their recent lows, thanks to a slight pickup in risk appetite  yesterday. There have been no major reports out of the comdoll economies then while today has the CPI and retail sales figures due from Canada.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way