Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 19, 2015)

Data from the US has been weaker than expected, with the NAHB housing index falling from 56 to 54 instead of improving to 57. Today, building permits and housing starts data are due. Building permits could climb from 1.04M to 1.06M while housing starts could increase from 0.93M to 1.02M, which might be enough to extend the dollar’s gains. Weaker than expected data, however, could put the Greenback back in selloff mode.

EUR

The euro snapped its recent rallies, as it gave up a lot of its gains to its forex rivals. Optimism for the Greek debt situation seems to have faded since traders are now focusing on the debt-ridden nation’s ability to make its next batch of payments. The German ZEW economic sentiment figure is lined up for today and analysts are expecting to see a drop from 53.3 to 48.8 for May. Also due today is the euro zone final CPI reading and the region’s ZEW economic sentiment figure.

GBP

The pound was unable to sustain its climb in recent trading sessions, as traders closed their positions ahead of today’s CPI release. There have been no reports to provide the pound any support yesterday while today’s inflation reports could show no improvements in price levels. Headline CPI is slated to hold steady at a flat reading while the core CPI might also stay unchanged at 1.0%. Weaker than expected data might lead to more pound losses.

CHF

The franc gave up its recent wins when the Swiss retail sales report printed dismal results. Consumer spending slipped by 2.8% year-over-year in March, worse than the projected 2.0% slide, while the previous month’s reading was downgraded to show a sharper decline of 3.1% from the initially reported 2.7% drop. There are no reports lined up from Switzerland today but SNB official Danthine is set to give a testimony.

JPY

The yen was in a weak spot after Japan printed mostly weaker than expected data. Although core machinery orders marked a stronger than expected 2.9% gain, industrial production and tertiary industry activity both fell short of consensus. There are no reports due from Japan today but speculations of further easing later this year could keep the yen weak.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls managed to stay afloat in recent trading, despite weaker than expected PPI from New Zealand. Quarterly producer input prices marked a 1.1% slide versus the projected 0.6% drop while output prices showed a 0.9% slide instead of the estimated 0.1% uptick. Earlier today, New Zealand quarterly inflation expectations improved from 1.8% to 1.9% while the RBA minutes suggested that the central bank might sit on its hands for a while before cutting interest rates again. Later on, the New Zealand dairy auction is set to take place while BOC Governor Poloz has a testimony due.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way