Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 17, 2013)

The core CPI figure for April showed a 0.1% uptick instead of the projected 0.2% increase while the headline figure showed a 0.4% decline, worse than the estimated 0.3% drop and the previous 0.2% decline. The Philly Fed index highlighted another disappointment in the manufacturing sector, with the figure for May slipping from 1.3 to -5.2 instead of improving to 2.5. For today, the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment figure is set for release and it’s expected to print an improvement from 76.4 to 77.9 for the current month. Weak results could keep the dollar’s gains in check.

EUR

The euro had a small rebound against the U.S. dollar in yesterday’s trading as the U.S. economy printed a set of poor figures. However, EUR/USD was unable to sustain its gains past the 1.2900 mark as euro zone officials kept talking about the possibility of implementing negative deposit rates. Euro zone CPI came in line with consensus as the headline figure showed a 1.2% annual increase while the core report printed a 1.0% uptick. There are no reports from the euro zone today so pay special attention to speeches from finance officials in the region.

GBP                                            

The pound continued its rally against the Greenback in yesterday’s trading, pushing GBP/USD back above the 1.5200 major psychological support level. No reports were released from the U.K. yesterday but the positive sentiment from the previous day, when the U.K. printed strong jobs data and the BOE upgraded growth forecasts, continued to provide support for the pound. There are no reports on the U.K. schedule today but MPC member Weale is scheduled to give a speech, so pay attention to his assessment and outlook for the economy.

CHF                                 

USD/CHF dipped below the .9600 level in yesterday’s trading when the U.S. printed worse than expected CPI and manufacturing reports. However, the pair was able to rebound quickly and land back above .9600. There were no reports released from Switerland yesterday and none are due today so keep close tabs on market sentiment and U.S. data if you’re trading USD/CHF.

JPY                       

The Japanese yen fought hard against the U.S. dollar in yesterday’s trading, allowing USD/JPY to linger around the 102.00 area. Japanese industrial production came in stronger than expected, clocking in a 0.9% increase for April, up from the 0.2% previous figure. Core machinery orders, which was printed earlier today, also came in stronger than expected with a 14.2% jump.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)

Commodity currencies continued to bleed against the U.S. dollar as the recent slide in commodity prices started to weigh on their price action. There were no reports released from Australia and New Zealand recently, while Canada is slated to print its CPI data in today’s U.S. session. A 0.2% increase in core price levels are projected while the headline figure is likely to stay flat.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way