Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 04, 2017)

Fed officials shrugged off the Q1 GDP miss and assessed that growth could continue at a moderate pace and that inflation is likely to hit its 2% target in the medium-term. The ADP jobs figure came in at 177K versus 175K while the ISM non-manufacturing PMI rose from 55.2 to 57.5, higher than the 56.1 consensus. Initial jobless claims, trade balance, factory orders, and preliminary non-farm productivity and unit labor costs are lined up today.

EUR

The euro gave up some ground to the dollar but continued to advance against the comdolls and yen. German unemployment change was better than expected at -15K versus -10K while the region's flash GDP reading came in line with expectations of 0.5% growth. Spanish unemployment change and final services PMI readings are due today.

GBP

The pound was able to hold on to most of its recent gains after the construction PMI posted an upside surprise. Analysts expected the reading to dip from 52.2 to 52.1 but the actual figure landed at 53.1. The services PMI is due today and analysts are expecting to see a drop from 55.0 to 54.6 but an upside surprise might be in the cards.

CHF

The franc had another mixed performance as it weakened to the dollar and European currencies but advanced to the comdolls and yen. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday while the SECO consumer climate index is due today. A recovery from -3 to +3 is eyed, possibly lending more support to the Swiss currency.

JPY

The yen was the weakest performer of the bunch as risk-off traders favored the dollar again on rising bond yields and expectations of more Fed rate hikes. Japanese banks are still closed for the holiday so there are no reports due from Japan.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls slid to the dollar but managed to recover against the yen. Crude oil inventories fell by 0.9 million barrels versus the projected drop of 3.3 million barrels. Australia's trade balance was weaker than expected at a surplus of 3.11 billion AUD versus the projected 3.33 billion AUD reading and the earlier 3.66 billion AUD surplus. China's Caixin services PMI is down from 52.2 to 51.5. Canada's trade balance and a speech by BOC Governor Poloz is lined up.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way