Forex Major Currencies Outlook (March 31, 2014)

Data from the US economy came in mostly in line with expectations, as personal spending and income rose by 0.3% while the University of Michigan consumer sentiment figure was revised to 80.0. Yellen is set to give a speech in today’s New York trading session and spark additional volatility for dollar pairs. If she emphasizes her rate hike timeline of six months after the end of asset purchases, the dollar could draw more support.

EUR

The euro showed signs of weakness on Friday but was able to make a quick bounce to the dollar and the yen before the trading week closed. Reports from the euro zone were actually weaker than expected, with German CPI coming in at 0.3% instead of the estimated 0.4% figure and French consumer spending posting a mere 0.1% uptick instead of the projected 1.0% gain. German retail sales and euro zone CPI flash estimate are on tap for today and another round of weak reports could lead to more losses for the euro.

GBP

The pound retreated slightly on Friday, as data from the UK came in below consensus. The current account balance showed a larger than expected deficit of 22.4 billion GBP while the previous reading was downgraded to show a 22.8 billion GBP shortfall. Meanwhile the final GDP reading saw no revisions from its previous 0.7% figure. UK net lending to individuals data is due today, along with a speech from BOE Governor Carney.

CHF

The franc consolidated to the dollar on Friday, thanks to the lack of data from Switzerland. USD/CHF formed a doji on its daily time frame, indicating a possible reversal. Swiss KOF economic barometer is due this Monday and it might show a small improvement from 2.03 to 2.08, which could allow the franc to gain more ground against the dollar.

JPY

Traders dumped the Japanese yen early on as data from Japan over the weekend showed bleak results. Manufacturing PMI declined while the industrial production report showed a surprise 2.3% decline. On top of that, Japan will be implementing its sales tax hike this week and traders are anticipating further BOJ stimulus to offset the potential economic drag. Japanese housing starts data is also due today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls gave back some of their recent gains on Friday as profit-taking took place in the forex market. New Zealand reported a 1.7% decline in building consents and a decline in ANZ business confidence while Australia showed a 4.6% increase in HIA new home sales. Canada is set to print its monthly GDP reading today and possibly show a 0.4% growth reading for January.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way