Forex Major Currencies Outlook (March 28, 2014)

. Data came in mixed, with pending home sales printing a weaker than expected figure. The report showed a 0.8% decline instead of the estimated 0.1% uptick while the previous month’s figure was revised to show a 0.2% decline. Initial jobless claims came in strong at 311K versus the estimated 326K figure, but the GDP reading was revised down from 2.6% to 2.4%. US consumer data, namely the revised UoM consumer sentiment figure and personal spending figures, are on tap for today.

EUR

The euro suffered another round of losses to its major counterparts, particularly the dollar and the pound, as data from the euro zone came in weak. Private loans tumbled by 2.2% versus the estimated 2.1% dip while the previous figure was revised lower. Data on German import prices and French consumer spending are up for release today and more signs of weakness could lead to more declines for the euro.

GBP

The pound made a strong bounce to the dollar and the euro yesterday when UK retail sales printed stronger than expected results. The report marked a 1.7% jump versus the estimated 0.5% uptick, although the previous figure was revised down from -1.5% to -2.0%. For today, UK current account and final GDP are on tap. Strong figures could allow the pound to extend its rally.

CHF

The franc kept consolidating to the dollar, thanks to the lack of major reports from Switzerland. The Swiss currency failed to take advantage of dollar weakness as recent comments from SNB officials showed that the central bank is still keen on pursuing franc weakness. There are no reports due from Switzerland today.

JPY

The yen had a topsy-turvy day as it gained on risk aversion then lost ground when Japanese data came in strong. Tokyo core CPI and national core CPI both printed healthy gains while household spending marked a 2.5% decline. Traders are uneasy about buying the yen ahead of the April sales tax increase while the improvement in risk appetite is keeping yen pairs strong.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls continued to gain ground against its lower-yielding counterparts, with the Kiwi boosted by more rate hike expectations and the Aussie lifted by risk sentiment. Even the Loonie was able to take advantage of the gains, as USD/CAD dipped below the 1.1000 mark. There are no reports due from the comdoll economies today so be mindful of potential profit taking ahead of the weekend and end of the month.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way