Forex Major Currencies Outlook (March 21, 2014)

The initial jobless claims report showed a 320K reading instead of the projected 327K figure while the Philly Fed index jumped from -6.3 to 9.0. On the other hand, existing home sales fell short of expectations and declined from 4.62M to 4.60M. There are no major reports lined up from the US today but there are a bunch of testimonies by FOMC officials. This could set the tone for dollar trading as it would confirm whether or not other policymakers agree with Yellen’s statements on future monetary policy plans.

EUR

The euro lost further ground in yesterday’s trading sessions, with EUR/USD breaking below the 1.3800 mark to the dollar. Only the German PPI was released from the euro zone and this printed a flat reading instead of the estimated 0.2% uptick. Euro zone current account and consumer confidence are up for release today and this might determine whether the euro will lose further ground or recover before the end of the week.

GBP

The pound was unable to hold on against the dollar in recent trading, as risk aversion took over the markets. The CBI industrial order expectations actually came in stronger than expected as it improved from 3 to 6 yet GBP/USD sold off because of strong US data. UK public sector net borrowing data is up for release today and it might show a 7.8 billion GBP reading.

CHF

The franc still continued to give way to the dollar in yesterday’s sessions when the SNB reiterated its pledge to defend the franc peg. There are no reports lined up from Switzerland today so EUR/CHF and USD/CHF movement might depend on euro zone and US events.

JPY

The yen made a bit of recovery to its counterparts as risk rallies were kept at bay. The worsening conflict in Ukraine and the economic sanctions being imposed turned out to be favorable for the safe-haven yen. There were no major reports released from Japan yesterday and none are due today, as Japanese banks are on holiday.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were no match to dollar strength recently, as the run in risk aversion dampened demand for these higher-yielding currencies. The looming risk of corporate default in China weighed on the Australian dollar, although the country reported a 0.2% uptick in its CB leading index earlier today. New Zealand reported a 2.2% increase in visitor arrivals for February, helping NZD/USD stay above the short-term rising trend line. The event risk for the Loonie today is the Canadian retail sales release, which might show a 0.8% increase for the headline figure and a 0.9% gain for the core figure. Canadian CPI is also up for release today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way