Forex Major Currencies Outlook (March 10, 2014)

The actual figure showed a 175,000 increase in jobs versus the estimated 151,000 gain while the readings for January 2014 and December 2013 were upgraded. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ticked up from 6.6% to 6.7% in February as more people returned to the labor force to look for jobs. There are no major reports due from the US economy today so the recent dollar euphoria from the NFP release might carry on to today’s trading.

EUR

The euro extended its wins to the dollar last Friday, as the EUR/USD pair surged to the 1.3900 handle. Data from the euro zone was mostly in line with expectations, as the German industrial production report showed a 0.8% uptick. There are no major reports due from the euro zone today so it will be interesting to see whether the shared currency can hold on to its gains and go for more. Do watch out for medium-tier data such as French and Italian industrial production, as well as the Sentix investor confidence report.

GBP

The pound still stayed stuck in sideways movement to the dollar for the most part of Friday’s trading, although the latest NFP release did spark a bit of a selloff for GBP/USD. Consumer inflation expectations in the UK were weaker at 2.8% compared to the previous month’s 3.6% reading. There are no reports due from the UK today so Cable might stay stuck in consolidation for yet another day.

CHF

The franc was a big winner to the dollar in Friday’s trading, as the Swiss currency pushed USD/CHF below .8800. However, data from Switzerland was weaker than expected, as CPI was at 0.1% instead of the estimated 0.4% reading. The unemployment rate held steady at 3.2% as expected while Swiss foreign currency reserves declined to 433.5 billion CHF. Swiss retail sales data is up for release today and this might show a 2.7% gain.

JPY

The yen lost ground to the dollar but made a bit of recovery to its major counterparts on Friday as risk appetite weakened and traders took profits at key levels. There were no reports released from Japan then. Over the weekend, Japanese data (final GDP, current account) came in mostly in line with expectations, triggering a bit of support for the currency.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls gave up their recent gains to the dollar in recent trading, as the Greenback drew support from a strong NFP figure. AUD/USD sank back to the .9100 area while USD/CAD surged past the 1.1100 major psychological level. Canada’s jobs report was weaker than expected, as the economy lost 7K jobs for February but kept the jobless rate steady at 7.0%. Over the weekend, Chinese CPI came in slightly weaker than expected and caused a gap lower for AUD/USD. Canadian housing starts is the only report due from the comdoll economies today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way