Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Mar 4, 2015)

There have been no major reports released from the US economy yesterday while today has the ISM non-manufacturing PMI and ADP non-farm employment change reports on tap. The non-manufacturing survey could show weaker industry expansion, as the index is slated to dip from 56.7 to 56.5. Meanwhile, the ADP report could show a stronger increase in hiring of 219K from the previous 213K rise. Stronger than expected data could mean more gains for the dollar, as this could lead to pricing in of positive expectations for the NFP.

EUR

The euro was in for more declines yesterday even though data from the euro zone came in stronger than expected. German retail sales jumped by 2.9% versus the projected 0.5% uptick while Spain reported an increase in hiring of 13.5K instead of the estimated 10.5K drop. Surveys indicating that most traders still believe that Greece’s debt problems could worsen appear to have weighed on the shared currency. For today, Spanish and Italian services PMIs are up for release, along with euro zone retail sales data.

GBP

The pound was still in a weak spot against its forex rivals, despite stronger than expected construction PMI. The reading improved from 50.1 to 60.1, indicating a faster pace of industry expansion. For today, the services PMI is up for release and might have a stronger impact on pound movement, as this sector contributes more to overall economic growth. The reading is slated to climb from 57.2 to 57.6 and possibly lead to a bounce for the British currency.

CHF

The franc barely drew support from stronger than expected Swiss GDP data, as risk aversion stayed in play yesterday. The economy grew 0.6% in Q4 versus the projected 0.3% GDP reading while the previous quarter’s figure was upgraded. There are no reports lined up from the Swiss economy today.

JPY

The Japanese yen enjoyed a few gains in recent trading, as risk aversion extended its stay in the currency market. There have been no reports released from the US economy so far and none are due today, which suggests that sentiment could continue to drive yen movements.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls struggled to regain ground in recent trading, although the Loonie drew a bit of support from stronger than expected monthly GDP data from Canada. The economy showed a 0.3% growth figure for December, leading to a higher than expected quarterly GDP reading of 2.4% for Q4. Earlier today, Australia reported a lower than expected GDP figure of 0.5% versus the projected 0.7% expansion. In New Zealand, the dairy auction marked a feeble 1.1% increase in prices. Later today, the BOC will make its rate statement and possibly keep policy unchanged for now.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way