Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Mar 13, 2015)

Headline consumer spending slumped 0.6% in February while core retail sales showed a 0.1% decline instead of the projected 0.8% gain. Cold weather conditions weighed on spending for the past month, as it had for the previous couple of months also. For today, PPI data and consumer sentiment figures are up for release and these might be leading indicators for inflation and spending. Strong data could allow the dollar to recover for the rest of the week while weak figures could spur more losses.

EUR

The euro took advantage of dollar weakness in yesterday’s trading but was still weaker compared to most of its major counterparts. There have been no major reports released from the euro zone yesterday and none are due today, indicating that current trends might still carry on.

GBP

The pound suffered more losses to its forex rivals in yesterday’s sessions even though the UK printed a better than expected trade balance. The deficit narrowed from 9.9 billion GBP to 8.4 billion GBP, indicating an improvement in trade activity. However, this wasn’t enough to lend support to the British currency, as traders seem to be doubting the BOE’s upbeat stance and focusing more on the weak data recently.

CHF

The franc regained a bit of ground to the dollar, mostly due to the weakness in US retail sales. There have been no reports released from Switzerland yesterday and none are due today, indicating that the franc could act as a counter currency or take its cue from euro zone data or risk sentiment.

JPY

The yen continued to advance as risk aversion stayed in the financial markets. Japanese consumer confidence showed a slightly stronger than expected reading, which led to a bit more support for the yen. Revised industrial production data is up for release today and strong readings could continue to boost the Japanese currency.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were in better shape yesterday, as the Aussie was supported by jobs data which came in line with expectations. Canadian jobs data is up for release today and a 3.5K decline in hiring is eyed, which might be enough to keep the Loonie’s gains in check. The jobless rate is slated to climb from 6.6% to 6.7% but a better than expected result could still support the Canadian currency.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way