Forex Major Currencies Outlook (June 5, 2013)

Only the trade balance was released from the U.S. yesterday and this came out better than expected, as the deficit widened from 37.1 billion USD to 40.3 billion USD instead of 41.1 billion USD. For today, the U.S. is set to print its ADP non-farm employment change figure and its ISM non-manufacturing PMI. The ADP report could show a 171K increase in private payrolls while the ISM non-manufacturing PMI is slated to improve from 53.1 to 53.4. However, weaker than expected data could be negative for the dollar, as these might imply that the U.S. recovery isn’t that strong yet.

EUR

The euro managed to stay above the 1.3000 major psychological level in yesterday’s trading as Spain’s unemployment change figure came in better than expected. Euro zone’s third largest economy chalked up a 98.3K drop in joblessness for May. For today, the euro zone will be releasing services PMI from Spain and Italy. Both countries printed better than expected results for their manufacturing sector earlier this week so there’s a chance that services data could beat expectations as well.

GBP

Despite the better than expected construction PMI figure, the pound’s gains were limited below the 1.5300 handle against the dollar yesterday. Construction PMI climbed from 49.4 to 50.8 for May, showing that the sector returned to growth after months of consecutive contractions. Services PMI is up for release from the U.K. today and a better than expected reading could give the pound a stronger boost above 1.5300. The reading is projected to climb from 52.9 to 53.1.

CHF

USD/CHF moved sideways in yesterday’s trading because of the lack of market catalysts from both the US and Switzerland. The pair cruised around the .9475 handle for almost the entire trading day. There are no major reports from Switzerland today so USD/CHF is likely to take its cues from U.S. data, which are the ADP non-farm employment change and ISM non-manufacturing PMI.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)

Commodity currencies lost against the dollar in yesterday’s trading, as AUD/USD fell back below the .9700 handle and NZD/USD dipped to .7900. The Australian economy printed weaker than expected growth of 0.6% versus the estimated 0.8% expansion, causing AUD/USD to weaken in the Asian session. Canada is set to print its building permits today and possibly show a 2.3% decline.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way