Forex Major Currencies Outlook (June 18, 2015)

The Fed actually downgraded their forecasts for growth and employment this year while upgrading their estimates for the next two years. The statement didn’t focus on weak inflationary prospects and the dollar’s negative impact on price levels, indicating that policymakers are no longer too concerned about these issues. Inflation readings are up for release today and the US could show a 0.5% increase in the headline CPI and a 0.2% uptick for the core CPI. The initial jobless claims figure and the Philly Fed manufacturing index are also due today.

EUR

The euro managed to take advantage of dollar weakness but still kept its gains limited against its other forex rivals, as traders are waiting to see how today’s set of Greek debt talks turn out. Euro zone final CPI readings have been unchanged from the initially reported 0.3% headline figure and 0.9% core figure. There are no other major reports on tap from the euro zone today.

GBP

The pound was able to extend its rallies in recent trading, despite weaker than expected headline jobs data. The economy added only 6.5K jobs in May, lower than the projected 12.1K increase, although the previous reading enjoyed a small upgrade. What drove the pound higher was the strong jump in average hourly earnings of 2.9% versus the projected 2.5% gain. Apart from that, the BOE minutes also emphasized that the economy could draw more support from this increase in wage inflation.

CHF

The franc was able to take advantage of dollar weakness in recent trading but is consolidating prior to the SNB rate statement. The central bank isn’t expected to announce any surprises which might lead to sharp moves for franc pairs, but it wouldn’t hurt to play it safe. Market watchers could also be on the lookout for any comments regarding franc strength or the impact of the Greek debt troubles on Switzerland.

JPY

The yen advanced to the dollar and most of its major counterparts, as traders transferred their safe-haven holdings from the dollar to the yen. Japan reported a smaller trade balance, which reflected another pickup in exports, something that the BOJ has already been highlighting in their recent statements. There are no reports due from Japan today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were still in a weak spot compared to most of their counterparts, with the Kiwi leading the declines. New Zealand printed a weaker than expected 0.2% growth figure for the first quarter, hinting that another RBNZ cut might be needed. There are no major reports lined up from the comdoll economies today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way