Forex Major Currencies Outlook (June 17, 2015)

Data from the US was mixed, with building permits beating expectations and housing starts falling short. With today’s FOMC statement, traders are waiting to see if there will be any changes in the economic projections and are hoping to hear confirmation that the Fed can be able to hike interest rates sometime this year. However, cautious remarks and jawboning might keep the dollar’s gains in check.

EUR

The euro edged slightly lower against its rivals due to the lack of progress in the Greek debt talks. Traders are slowly starting to price in the possibility of seeing a debt default and a Grexit, which might still be damaging for the euro. The German ZEW economic sentiment index came in weaker than expected, as the reading fell from 41.9 to 31.5, worse than the expected drop to 37.5. The euro zone ZEW reading slipped from 61.2 to 53.7, reflecting a downturn in confidence. Today euro zone final CPI readings are due.

GBP

The pound was able to extend its rallies, despite slightly weaker than expected inflation readings from the UK. Headline CPI showed a 0.1% rebound as expected while the core CPI improved from 0.8% to 0.9%, short of the projected 1.0% figure. PPI slipped 0.9% instead of showing the estimated 0.7% increase, hinting of weaker price pressures down the line. For today, the UK jobs report is due and it might show a 12.5K increase in hiring. Also lined up is the release of the BOE minutes and any changes in rhetoric could also push pound pairs around.

CHF

The franc was stuck in consolidation against most of its forex counterparts, as the release of the Swiss SECO economic forecasts did very little to give the currency any direction. There are no major reports lined up from Switzerland today, except for the ZEW economic expectations index which showed a -0.1 reading in the previous release.

JPY

The yen gave back some of its recent wins when BOJ Governor Kuroda mentioned that he didn’t mean to spark any huge moves with his comments last week. Recall that he said the yen was able to correct its excessive gains in the past and that the real effective exchange rate shows sufficient weakness. There have been no reports released from Japan then and none are due today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls struggled to hold on to their current levels due to the lack of top-tier data from the economies. The RBA minutes didn’t contain any surprises, as it simply showed that policymakers want to keep monetary policy accommodative and that they’d like to see more Aussie weakness. In New Zealand, the dairy auction showed another decline in price levels. The country’s GDP is up for release in the latter part of the US session.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way