Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 2, 2015)

Data from the US also came in better than expected, setting the stage for an upside surprise in the NFP. The ADP non-farm employment change figure showed a 237K gain in hiring, higher than the projected 219K figure and the previous 203K increase. However, Challenger job cuts showed a 42.7% rise, reflecting an increase in layoffs. Meanwhile the ISM manufacturing PMI came in slightly better than expected at 53.5 versus the projected 53.2 reading, up from the previous 53.4 figure. The NFP could show a 230K increase in hiring, slower than the previous 280K gain, but probably enough to bring the jobless rate down from 5.5% to 5.4%.

EUR

The euro resumed its selloff to some of its major counterparts, as EU officials confirmed that Greece is in arrears with the IMF and that it risks getting thrown out of the euro zone if another set of bailout funds isn’t unlocked. Data from the euro zone came in mostly in line with expectations but traders declined to buy up the shared currency ahead of the Greek referendum this weekend. Spanish unemployment change data is due today and a larger decline in joblessness is eyed, along with the release of the ECB meeting minutes.

GBP

The pound continued to sell off against some of its rivals after the UK printed a disappointing manufacturing PMI reading. The figure fell from 51.9 to 51.4 in June instead of improving to the projected 52.6 reading. The construction PMI is up for release today but it might not have such a strong impact on pound price action.

CHF

The franc took its cue from the euro and sold off against most of its counterparts, with traders worrying about debt contagion in Europe. Swiss manufacturing PMI came in line with expectations of a climb from 49.4 to 50.0, which reflects industry expansion. There are no reports due from Switzerland today.

JPY

The yen advanced to most of its rivals, except for the US dollar, when risk aversion extended its stay in the markets. Japan’s Tankan survey printed improvements for the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, confirming that the BOJ isn’t likely to increase its stimulus anytime soon. No reports are due from Japan today, leaving risk sentiment at the driver’s seat of price action.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Kiwi suffered another sharp selloff when the dairy trade auction showed a decline in prices. This was followed by the ANZ report indicating a 3.1% decline in commodity prices for New Zealand and a downward revision in the previous month’s data. Australia printed a larger than expected trade deficit of 2.75 billion AUD and reported a downgrade in the previous month’s trade balance. There are no other reports lined up from the comdoll economies today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way