Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jan 31, 2017)

Data came in mixed, with personal spending beating expectations with its 0.5% gain versus the 0.4% consensus even as personal income fell short at 0.3%. The core PCE price index met consensus at 0.1% while pending home sales also hit the mark with a 1.6% increase. Chicago PMI and the quarterly employment cost index are lined up next.

EUR

The euro ended up mostly weaker against its peers when Germany printed a downbeat preliminary CPI reading. This could dampen the region's flash CPI readings due today, although analysts expect the headline reading to rise from 1.1% to 1.5% and the core figure to stay unchanged at 0.9%. The preliminary GDP reading is also due and a 0.4% expansion is eyed.

GBP

The pound gave up some of its recent wins to its peers even though data came in slightly better than expected. The GfK consumer confidence reading improved from -7 to -5 instead of falling to -8. UK net lending to individuals data is due today but traders could be holding out ahead of the BOE Super Thursday.

CHF

The franc raked in gains to the dollar and continued to advance against the euro despite weak Swiss data. The KOF economic barometer fell from 102.1 to 101.7 instead of rising to 102.9. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today so the franc could be sensitive to euro movements.

JPY

The yen regained a lot of ground against its peers when US assets started selling off. Household spending and preliminary industrial production data from Japan also turned out better than expected while the BOJ refrained from making more policy changes. The BOJ press conference is due next so yen pairs might still have another round of volatility.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls took advantage of dollar weakness but were no match to yen strength. New Zealand's visitor arrivals fell 1.3% in December while Australia's NAB business confidence figure was unchanged at 6. Canada's monthly GDP is due next and a 0.3% growth figure is eyed while New Zealand will print its quarterly jobs report. A weaker 0.8% gain in hiring is expected compared to the earlier 1.4% increase but the unemployment rate could fall from 4.9% to 4.8%.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way