Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jan 29, 2015)

The Fed decided to drop the “considerable time” wording completely and emphasized that they “can be patient” in looking at policy normalization. They also upgraded growth and labor forecasts, indicating that the domestic economy is doing well. For today, initial jobless claims and pending home sales data are up for release.

EUR

The euro had a mixed performance as it gained ground against the commodity currencies but weakened to the rest of its counterparts. Data from the euro zone was mixed, as the German GfK consumer climate index improved from 9.0 to 9.3 while import prices noted a worse than expected 1.7% decline. German preliminary CPI and unemployment change figures are up for release today, with weak figures likely to drive the euro lower.

GBP

The pound managed to advance against the Aussie and Kiwi but stayed in a weak spot compared to its other forex counterparts. There have been no major reports released from the UK yesterday while today only has the medium-tier CBI realized sales figure due. The reading is slated to drop from 61 to 31, which could mean more pound selling.

CHF

The franc took its cue from the euro and weakened slightly, albeit at a slower pace. The UBS consumption indicator marked an improvement from 1.29 to 1.42, which was positive for the franc. There are no reports lined up from Switzerland today, which suggests that euro behavior or risk sentiment could drive franc movements.

JPY

The yen advanced to most of its counterparts as risk aversion extended its stay in the forex market. Earlier today, the retail sales report indicated a weaker than expected 0.2% gain versus the projected 1.1% increase and the previous 0.5% uptick. There are no other reports due from Japan today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Kiwi suffered a sharp selloff in the early Asian trading session when the RBNZ decided to drop its hawkish stance and indicate that their next move could either be a rate hike or a rate cut. Wheeler also emphasized that the currency exchange rate was unjustified and unsustainable, citing that he’d like to see further significant depreciation. New Zealand trade balance was also weaker than expected, as the deficit stood at 159 million NZD. In Australia, quarterly import prices saw a 0.9% gain versus the estimated 1.5% rebound.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way