Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jan 22, 2015)

Data from the US has also been mixed, with building permits showing a lower than expected 1.03M reading and housing starts indicating a higher than expected 1.09M figure. For today, there are no major reports due from the US, suggesting that the currency might react to risk sentiment or act as a counter currency once more.

EUR

 The euro recovered slightly to most of its counterparts, with traders easing off their short positions ahead of the ECB interest rate decision today. The central bank is widely expected to announce a quantitative easing program, but the size of the bond-purchases might be crucial in determining euro price action. Any figure north of 1 trillion EUR might lead to more euro losses while a conservative amount of roughly 500 billion EUR could spark a relief rally.

GBP

 The pound moved sideways in recent trading, even as the BOE minutes showed that members were more cautious this time around. There were no hawkish members voting for a rate hike since weakening inflation remained a huge concern. What kept the pound afloat was the better than expected jobs data, which revealed a 29.4K increase in hiring and a jobless rate improvement from 6.0% to 5.8%. Wage growth was also seen, with the average hourly earnings figure improving from 1.4% to 1.7%. There are no major events lined up from the UK today.

CHF

 The franc recovered to the dollar and some of its counterparts in yesterday’s trading sessions, as traders booked profits off their long positions prior to today’s ECB statement. The Swiss ZEW economic expectations report indicated more weakness, as the figure fell from -4.9 to -10.8.

JPY

 The yen advanced to most of its counterparts as risk aversion took hold of the financial markets and the BOJ decided to keep monetary policy unchanged. This triggered a relief rally for the Japanese currency, as some thought that the central bnak might move to counter deflation. There are no reports due from Japan today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

 The comdolls suffered a nasty selloff in recent trading, particularly for the Canadian dollar. The BOC announced a surprise interest rate cut of 0.25% as the impact of falling oil prices started to be felt in the Canadian economy, leading to lower company profits, layoffs, weak inflation, and a potential housing crash. There are no major reports lined up from the comdoll economies today, although risk aversion could keep currency gains in check.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way