Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jan 17, 2017)

Traders are set to return to their desks today but only the Empire State manufacturing index is up for release, along with a speech by FOMC member Dudley. 

EUR

The euro seems to be in a weak spot ahead of this week's events, particularly UK PM May's speech. Any indication that they're willing to give up access to the single market could also mean repercussions for the bloc's trade revenues. Euro zone trade balance already came in weaker than expected with a 22.7 billion EUR surplus while ZEW economic sentiment readings from Germany and the entire region are lined up today. 

GBP

The pound was off to a poor start for the week in anticipation of "hard Brexit" talk from PM May. If she reiterates how they're willing to forego the single market in exchange for immigration controls, the UK currency could be in for another wave down. UK CPI readings are also up for release and gains in the headline and core figure are eyed, with BOE Governor Carney recently emphasizing that they have a limited tolerance for strong inflation. 

CHF

The franc tossed and turned against the dollar while consolidating to the euro and advancing against the pound. The Swiss currency could serve as a safe-haven for European trades but investors are still wary of SNB intervention. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today. 

JPY

The yen continued to take advantage of risk-off moves as traders are shying away from the dollar on Trump's upcoming inauguration. Data from Japan has been in line with estimates, as the tertiary industry activity index printed a 0.2% uptick while the preliminary machine tool orders report saw a 4.4% rebound. Revised industrial production data is lined up next. 

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls held on to most of their recent gains, thanks to rising commodity prices. New Zealand's NZIER business confidence index improved from 26 to 28 while new home loans in Australia posted a stronger than expected 0.9% gain. New Zealand's GDT auction is due next and a pickup in dairy prices could spur more Kiwi gains. 

By Kate Curtis from  Trader's Way