Forex Major Currencies Outlook (December 4, 2013)

For today, US trade balance, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, and new home sales reports are up for release. The trade balance could show a smaller deficit of 40.3 billion USD while the ISM non-manufacturing PMI could hold steady at 55.4. New home sales are projected to show a 432K reading, as stronger than expected figures might allow the dollar to regain ground. US ADP non-farm employment change is also on deck and this might provide some hints for the upcoming NFP release later this week. 

EUR

The euro bounced back to action in yesterday’s trading as it found support at the 1.3550 minor psychological level. Data from the euro zone was stronger than expected, as Spain reported a 2.5K drop in unemployment. Services PMIs from Spain and Italy are up for release today and the odds are tilted to a downside surprise. Euro zone retail sales data is also up for release and a 0.2% uptick is expected.

GBP

The pound was unable to extend its rallies past the 1.6450 minor psychological resistance even though the UK construction PMI came in much stronger than expected. The report showed a 62.6 reading, much higher than the 59.3 estimate and the previous 59.4 figure. Services PMI is up for release today and this might have a bigger effect on pound price action. The reading is slated to dip from 62.5 to 62.1, which might force the pound to return some of its recent gains.

CHF

The franc tried to extend its wins against its counterparts, as USD/CHF dipped back to the .9050 zone. There were no reports released from Switzerland yesterday and there are none due today so franc pairs might be in for a bit of quiet trading.

JPY

The yen regained ground against most of its currency rivals, particularly the US dollar when the Nikkei stock index posted another day of declines. There were no major reports released from Japan then and there are none due today, which suggests that yen movement might depend on how the Japanese equities fare for the day.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

 
The comdolls still showed signs of weakness in yesterday’s trading and in today’s Asian session, as Australia reported a weaker than expected GDP reading of 0.6% when analysts projected a 0.7% growth figure. However, the previous quarter’s reading was revised up from 0.6% to 0.7%. No other reports are due from the Australia or New Zealand today so this weak GDP reading might keep weighing on Aussie pairs. As for Canada, trade balance data is due in today’s US session and a wider deficit of 0.7 billion CAD is expected. The BOC is also set to make its interest rate decision today, which might prove to be a volatile US session for USD/CAD.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way