Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Aug 5, 2015)

Factory orders picked up by 1.8%, a rebound from the earlier 1.1% decline. For today, the ADP non-farm employment change report is due and a 216K increase is eyed, weaker compared to the previous 237K gain. A lower than expected figure could set the tone for a disappointing NFP report, which might lead to a sharp dollar selloff, while a strong figure could spur rallies. Also lined up today is the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI, which is expected to climb from 56.0 to 56.3.

EUR

The euro returned its recent wins to the dollar and most of its forex rivals, despite better than expected jobs data from Spain. The country showed a 74K drop in unemployment, larger than the projected 45K reduction but smaller than the previous 94.7K drop. The selloff in Greek equities when the country’s stock market reopened was mostly to blame for the drop in the shared currency’s value. For today, euro zone retail sales and final PMI readings from some of its top economies are lined up.

GBP

The pound was stuck in consolidation to most of its forex peers since traders are waiting to see how the Super Thursday turns out. UK construction PMI was weaker than expected at 57.1, down from the previous 58.1 figure and lower than the projected 58.6 reading. For today, the services PMI is due and it could still spur pound volatility since the sector accounts for majority of overall economic activity. Analysts are expecting to see a dip from 58.5 to 58.1, which might lead to a bit of pound weakness.

CHF

The franc sustained its losses to most of its counterparts because there were no reports from Switzerland to keep the currency afloat. Swiss CPI is due today and a 0.4% drop in price levels is expected to follow the previous 0.1% uptick. Weaker than expected data could mean more losses for the franc while a strong figure could spur gains.

JPY

The yen had a mixed performance since it functioned mostly as a counter currency in recent trading sessions. Data from Japan was weaker than expected, with average hourly earnings showing a 2.4% drop instead of the projected 0.9% increase. There are no reports lined up from Japan today, leaving risk sentiment in control.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Kiwi resumed its selloff after the GDT auction showed a 9.3% drop in dairy prices and the New Zealand jobs report fell short of expectations. The economy showed a mere 0.3% increase in hiring for the second quarter, short of the 0.5% expected gain, while the jobless rate climbed from 5.8% to 5.9%. The Aussie managed to hold on to most of its gains after seeing upbeat retail sales and trade balance figures, followed by a less dovish than expected RBA statement.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way