Forex Major Currencies Outlook (April 30, 2014)

Data from the US was weaker than expected, as the CB consumer confidence figure failed to meet expectations and landed at 82.3. This could all change today though with the preliminary GDP, ADP non-farm employment change figure, and FOMC monetary policy statement all on the docket. The GDP figure could show 1.2% growth for the first quarter of the year, much weaker compared to the downgraded 2.6% reading for the previous quarter. Meanwhile, the FOMC statement is likely to be a little more cautious compared to the previous one, with no rate hike forecasts likely to be announced.

EUR

The euro showed signs of weakness to its major counterparts as the euro zone printed a set of bleak figures. German preliminary CPI showed a 0.2% decline instead of the estimated 0.1% dip while Spanish joblessness surged to 25.9%. Private loans, M3 money supply, and Italian retail sales also disappointed. German and French retail sales data are due today, along with the euro zone’s preliminary CPI estimate. Spanish flash GDP and German unemployment change are also on tap. Weak figures could push the euro much lower to its forex counterparts.

GBP

The pound also bowed down in recent trading when the preliminary GDP reading fell short of expectations. The figure showed 0.8% growth instead of the estimated 0.9% reading. GfK consumer confidence did show an improvement from -5 to -3, but it still reflects pessimism. There are no major reports lined up from the UK economy today.

CHF

The franc fell to the dollar but gained against the euro in recent trading, as the lack of Swiss data kept the currency virtually directionless. Swiss UBS consumption indicator and KOF economic barometer are both on tap today, with both reports likely to show some form of improvement. In this case, the franc might be able to erase some of its recent losses to the dollar and possibly advance further against the euro.

JPY

The yen lost ground to most of its major counterparts as traders started pricing in dovish remarks from today’s BOJ rate statement. Data from Japan was mostly weak, as the official manufacturing PMI showed contractionary conditions while the preliminary industrial production reading fell short of expectations. The BOJ is not likely to change monetary policy this month but they could insist that they are open to easing if needed. GDP and inflation forecasts are also due today and downgrades could lead to yen weakness.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Aussie and Kiwi showed weakness in recent trading but the Canadian dollar got a boost from a rise in oil prices. Meanwhile, ANZ business confidence in New Zealand slipped from 67.3 to 64.8, reflecting lower optimism. Canadian monthly GDP is due later today, along with a speech by BOC Governor Poloz. A 0.2% growth figure is eyed, weaker compared to the previous 0.5% GDP increase.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way