Forex Major Currencies Outlook (April 26, 2013)

The initial jobless claims report came in stronger than expected at 339K for the previous week instead of the estimated 352K in first-time claimants. For today, the biggest market mover could be the U.S. GDP report for the first quarter of the year. Growth of 3.0% is expected to follow the previous 0.4% uptick and a strong figure could provide support for the dollar.

EUR                                                     

The euro managed to rally beyond the 1.3000 major psychological level in yesterday’s trading despite the recent weak data from the euro zone. Spanish unemployment reached 27.2% recently, higher than the estimated rise from 26.0% to 26.5%. There are no major reports due from the euro zone today as EUR/USD price action could be dependent on the U.S. GDP release.

GBP                                                                                 

The U.K. narrowly escaped a triple-dip recession for the first quarter of the year as the GDP reading showed a 0.3% expansion, enough to rebound from the last quarter’s 0.3% contraction. This triggered a sharp rally for pound pairs as it convinced traders that the BOE isn’t likely to ease further for now. No other reports are due from the U.K. today, leaving the pound on its current uptrend.

CHF                                                                                

The Swiss UBS consumption indicator printed a small increase from 1.24 to 1.25 for March, allowing the franc to recover from its losing streak against the Greenback. No other reports are scheduled from Switzerland today, which suggests that USD/CHF price action could be directed by the U.S. GDP figure later on.

JPY                                                                 

Inflation is still weak in Japan, judging from the recent CPI figures that were released. The Tokyo core CPI showed a 0.3% drop while the national core CPI printed a 0.5% decline, which suggests that the BOJ could do more to ward off deflation. The BOJ rate statement is scheduled today and this could result in huge moves for the yen once again if the central bank emphasizes its stance on monetary policy.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)

The commodity currencies were able to bounce higher against the U.S. dollar in yesterday’s trading as risk appetite improved. New Zealand and Australian banks are on a holiday, which means that there are no major reports due from these economies. Canada’s schedule is empty as well, which suggests that AUD/USD, NZD/USD, and USD/CAD could be at the mercy of U.S. data.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way