GBPJPY Downtrend Retracement (Jan 19, 2017)

Price has reached a low of 136.40 before pulling up and showing signs of a correction. Applying the Fib tool on the latest swing high and low shows that the 50% level coincides with the descending trend line connecting the latest highs of price action. 

The 100 SMA has crossed below the longer-term 200 SMA to indicate that the selloff is likely to carry on. The 100 SMA lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, which might be the line in the sand for this downtrend. 

Stochastic is pointing up but is already in the overbought region, which means that buyers are already exhausted and may let sellers take over. Once the oscillator turns lower, selling pressure could increase and push GBPJPY back down to the previous lows or lower. 

Earlier in the week, UK Prime Minister Theresa May outlined her Brexit plans in her latest testimony, explaining that the UK could forego access to the single European market in exchange for immigration controls. She assured that the government would seek trade deals with other nations to ensure that trade activity remains supported. 

However, these uncertainties seem to have been outweighed by stronger than expected data from the UK. Headline and core CPI posted strong gains and outpaced estimates while the claimant count change showed a surprise 10.1K reduction in joblessness. UK retail sales are still up for release on Friday.

In Japan, there have been no major reports recently so the yen may be reacting to country-specific events. Keep in mind, though, that the BOJ statement is coming up soon and that the central bank just upgraded their GDP forecasts. Apart from that, Trump's upcoming inauguration could impact US bond yields and yen demand. 

By Kate Curtis from  Trader's Way