Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jan 19)

The headline figure indicated a 0.4% drop in price levels while the core figure stayed flat in December. The Greenback might be in for more sideways movement today as US banks are closed for the Martin Luther King holiday. Risk sentiment might be a key driver of price action for most dollar pairs.

EUR

The euro managed to hold steady to the dollar on Friday, even as the final core CPI reading was downgraded from 0.8% to 0.7%. Only the euro zone current account balance is up for release today and this might not have such a huge impact on the shared currency’s price action. In any case, the current account surplus is slated to widen from 20.5 billion EUR to 22.7 billion EUR, which might continue to keep the euro afloat.

GBP

The pound continued its slow ascent to the dollar on Friday, despite the lack of data from the UK economy. Only the Rightmove HPI is scheduled for today and it indicated a 1.4% increase while the previous figure was revised to show a smaller decline, providing a bit of support for the pound for now.

CHF

The franc calmed down at the end of the week after its massive rally when the SNB removed the franc peg on Thursday. The Swiss retail sales report showed a surprise 1.2% drop when analysts were expecting to see a 1.1% gain, forcing the franc to return some of its recent gains. The PPI report is due today and a 0.6% decline is eyed.

JPY

The yen gave back some of its gains at the end of the week as most traders booked profits off their yen trades last Friday. Japan’s tertiary industry activity index showed a 0.2% uptick, slightly weaker than the estimated 0.3% gain but still an improvement over the previous 0.1% drop. Japanese revised industrial production and consumer confidence data are due today, although traders might be holding off any large positions ahead of this week’s BOJ statement.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls managed to end the week on a positive note, with the exception of the Loonie which continued to get weighed down by falling oil prices. There were no major reports released from the comdoll economies then and today has only a few medium-tier reports on tap. These are the Canadian foreign securities purchases and New Zealand’s NZIER business confidence figure, both of which might not have such a huge effect on price action.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way