USDCHF Rising Trend Channel (Dec 10, 2014)

Price just came off a test of the channel bottom around the .9700 major psychological level, which seems to have held as support.

Further gains could take the pair up to the top of the channel around the .9800 major psychological level or higher. Stochastic is already in the overbought area though, hinting that buying pressure may weaken soon. If the rally is slow, USDCHF might reach only until the middle of the channel around the .9775 area.

Increased selling pressure might even lead to a downside break of support and further losses for USD/CHF. Event risks for this trade today include the US retail sales release, which could show strong spending gains. After all, shopping during the Thanksgiving holidays must’ve picked up in the past month and employment came in strong then.

Going long at market with a stop below .9700 and a target of .9850 could yield a high return-on-risk for a day trade. Adjusting the stop to breakeven once price hits the top of the range could be a good way to protect profits.

As for Switzerland, there are no major reports lined up for today. Just recently, its CPI and retail sales showed bleak readings, as the inflation figure came in flat while spending was weaker than expected. With that, the fundamental bias for this pair is to the upside.

Bear in mind that the SNB’s foreign currency reserves also indicated that the central bank has room to ease or intervene in the forex market in order to keep its currency weak and ward off deflation.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way