EURUSD Retracement Play (Oct 19, 2015)

Using the Fibonacci retracement tool on the latest swing high and low reveals that the pair is currently finding support at the 50% level, which is near the 200 SMA.

A bounce off this region could take EURUSD back up to the previous highs around 1.1485 or much higher. After all, the 100 SMA is still moving above the longer-term 200 SMA, suggesting that the uptrend could resume sooner or later. A larger pullback could last until the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, which is close to the former resistance at the 1.1300 major psychological level.

On the other hand, a break below the lowest Fib could signal that a downtrend is in order. Stochastic is pointing down, hinting that sellers are taking control, while RSI is on middle ground and barely offering any strong directional clues.

There are no major event risks for both the euro and the US dollar today, as the main catalyst might be the ECB interest rate statement later on in the week. The final inflation reports from the euro zone confirmed that the region has indeed suffered deflation in September, with the headline CPI showing a 0.1% decline in price levels. This might be enough for the ECB to reiterate its dovish bias, pushing EURUSD lower if traders anticipate further easing.

Data from the US came in mostly in line with expectations on Friday, with only the preliminary UoM consumer sentiment index beating expectations. Up ahead, speeches from Fed members Brainard, Dudley, Powell, and Yellen might contain hints on the FOMC's next moves, with emphasis on a liftoff this year still likely to keep the dollar supported.

On the other hand, acknowledgement from Fed head Yellen that they might need to delay their rate hike to next year could force the dollar to give up more of its recent gains. After all, jobs data and retail sales figures have been coming in below expectations recently.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way