NZDUSD Countertrend Setup (Mar 4, 2016)

Price just bounced off support and is making its way to the top for a potential test of resistance.

If this ceiling holds, price could make its way back down to the bottom at the .6600 major psychological mark. On the other hand, an upside breakout could pave the way for a sharper rally.

The 100 SMA is below the 200 SMA, signaling that a selloff might take place. RSI is on the move down so price might follow suit while stochastic is also pointing south as well. 

Event risks for this setup include the NFP release in the US trading session, as strong data could spur expectations of a Fed rate hike this month and boost the US dollar. On the other hand, disappointing results could lead to an upside breakout.

Analysts are expecting to see a 195K increase in hiring, higher than the previous 151K gain. Leading labor indicators such as the ADP non-farm employment change and the jobs component of the ISM manufacturing survey have hinted at a possible upside surprise, but the employment sub-index of the non-manufacturing survey showed a contraction.

Meanwhile, risk appetite is still supporting the Kiwi but talks of an RBNZ rate cut this month or anytime within the year could keep a lid on the currency's gains. Data from New Zealand has been mixed, although the latest dairy auction showed a decent rebound in prices.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way