EURAUD Area of Interest (July 11, 2017)

Price just bounced off the resistance and could be due for a test of support at the 1.4900 major psychological level. 

Applying the Fib tool on the latest swing low and high shows that the 61.8% retracement level coincides with the channel support. If this keeps losses at bay, price could recover to the channel resistance at 1.5100 or higher. In addition, the channel support lines up with a former resistance level, adding to its strength as a floor. 

The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the upside. This short-term moving average is currently holding as dynamic support but a larger pullback to the 200 SMA closer to the 50% Fib might be in order. Stochastic is already indicating oversold conditions but has yet to pull up to reflect a return in bullish momentum. 

Economic data from the euro zone came in line with expectations on Monday, with the German trade balance widening from a surplus of 19.7 billion EUR to 20.3 billion EUR and the Sentix investor confidence index dipping from 28.4 to 28.3. There were no reports from Australia but China did print a weaker than expected CPI reading of 1.5% versus the consensus of a climb to 1.6%.

Up ahead, Australia will report its NAB business confidence index and home loans figure. The housing market in Australia has been under the spotlight after Moody's downgraded four of its top banks due to exposure to risky mortgages. Only the Italian industrial production is due from the euro zone next, although traders are likely to keep speculations of ECB tapering in play unless economic reports disappoint. 

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way