Forex Major Currencies Outlook (September 3, 2013)

There were no reports released from the US since traders were on a Labor Day holiday, but liquidity is expected to pick up strongly in today’s New York session as traders return to their desks. US ISM manufacturing PMI could be a major market mover today and a small decline from 55.4 to 54.2 is expected. 

EUR

The euro zone printed strong improvements in its manufacturing sector, allowing its overall manufacturing PMI to hold at 51.3 for August. Spain and Italy printed record-high figures, but this seemed to be ignored by EUR/USD which was mostly driven by risk sentiment and the possibility of a Septaper. For today, Spanish unemployment change and euro zone PPI figures are up for release. 

GBP

The pound enjoyed some gains when the UK printed a sharp increase in its manufacturing PMI from 54.8 to 57.2, marking its highest level in more than two years. This ups the odds for a higher than expected construction PMI due today and a better services PMI reading due later on this week. Construction PMI is expected to climb from 57.0 to 58.4, reflecting a stronger expansion in the industry. 

JPY

The yen lost ground to its counterparts yesterday as Abe got support for his proposed sales tax increase. This was enough to push USD/JPY above the 99.25 resistance area and most yen pairs above their inflection points. There are no reports due from Japan today, which suggests that yen pairs could be swayed by risk sentiment mostly. 

CHF

The franc lost ground to the euro and the Greenback in yesterday’s trading as the Swiss SVME PMI turned out to be a disappointment. The figure slipped from 57.4 to 54.6, reflecting a slower expansion in the Swiss manufacturing industry. Swiss GDP is up for release today and a lower growth figure of 0.3% is expected for Q2 2013, down from the previous 0.6% reading. 

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

Australia recently printed bleak reports in the form of its retail sales and current account balance. Spending was up by a mere 0.1% instead of the estimated 0.4% uptick while the current account showed a deficit of 9.4 billion AUD. However, support from the recent improvement in Chinese manufacturing is still keeping AUD and NZD afloat. The RBA kept rates unchanged at 2.5% as expected, lending more support for AUD pairs. No reports are due from New Zealand and Canada today. 

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way