Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Sep 01, 2016)

The ADP report printed a 177K increase in hiring for August, higher than the projected 174K figure. The July figure was upgraded to show a 194K increase from the initially reported 179K gain. Meanwhile, the Chicago PMI showed a sharper than expected drop to 51.5 to show a slowdown in industry growth. The ISM manufacturing PMI is due today and a drop from 52.6 to 52.0 is expected, with the jobs component likely having a stronger say in USD price action.

EUR

The euro was mostly weaker after data from the euro zone missed expectations. The region's flash headline CPI stood at 0.2% versus the projected 0.3% figure while the core figure came in at 0.8% versus the projected 0.9% increase, keeping expectations up for additional ECB easing. German retail sales and unemployment change data beat expectations but French consumer spending and CPI fell short. Final manufacturing PMI readings are due today.

GBP

The pound continued to put up a fight against its counterparts as the UK Nationwide HPI printed a stronger than expected 0.6% gain instead of the projected 0.1% dip. For today, the UK manufacturing PMI is due and a rise from 48.2 to 49.1 is expected. Stronger than expected data could lead to a fresh boost for the pound since this would reassure traders that the economy is stable even after the Brexit vote. 

CHF

The franc gave up a lot of ground to its European counterparts and the dollar even as the UBS consumption indicator came in at 1.32. As it turns out, the previous reading suffered a sharp downward revision, suggesting that the economic situation wasn't as rosy as it seemed. Swiss retail sales and manufacturing PMI are lined up for today.

JPY

The yen continued to sink across the board after Japan printed yet another downbeat report. Capital spending came in at 3.1% for the quarter, lower than the projected 5.6% reading and the previous 4.2% figure. The final manufacturing PMI was also downgraded from 49.6 to 49.5.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

Canada printed a stronger than expected 0.6% monthly GDP figure for June, but the quarterly GDP amounted to a 1.6% contraction compared to the earlier 2.5% growth. Crude oil also sank after the US oil inventories report showed a larger than expected buildup of 2.3 million barrels. In Australia, private capital expenditure slipped 5.4% for Q2 versus the projected 4.0% drop while the previous reading suffered a downgrade. China's official manufacturing PMI rose from 49.9 to 50.4 but the Caixin version fell from 50.6 to 50.0.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way