Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Oct 6, 2014)

Employment picked up by 248,000 during the month, higher than the projected 212,000 increase. The previous months’ reports were also upgraded, amounting to 69,000 in upward revisions. These were enough to bring the jobless rate down to 5.9% - its lowest level since mid-2008. However, average hourly earnings stayed flat and indicated that there is still a significant amount of slack in the economy. There are no major reports lined up from the US today, which suggests that previous trends might continue.

EUR

The euro gave up more ground to the dollar on Friday, as services PMI from Spain and Italy fell short of expectations. Spanish services PMI fell from 58.1 to 55.8, lower than the estimated 56.9 reading. Italian services PMI dropped from 49.8 to 48.8, reflecting a sharper contraction in the industry. German factory orders data is up for release today and a 2.4% decline is projected, with weaker than expected results likely to push the euro lower.

GBP

The pound also suffered a wave of selling last Friday as the UK services PMI came in weaker than expected. The reading slipped from 60.5 to 58.7, lower than the projected 59.1 figure. There are no major reports due from the UK today, leaving pound pairs likely to stay in consolidation or to move to the tune of risk sentiment.

CHF

The franc gave up a lot of ground to the dollar and the euro on Friday, despite the lack of data from Switzerland. The currency took its cue from weak euro data and the fact that the SNB might be moving to closer to currency intervention.

JPY

The yen had a mixed performance, as it lost ground to the dollar but gained against the pound and most of its major counterparts. There were no reports released from Japan then and none are due today, but traders are probably pricing ahead of a dovish BOJ statement this week as Japanese data has been mostly disappointing.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

After a bit of retracements, the commodity currencies resumed their slide to the dollar on Friday. Canadian trade balance was weaker than expected at a 0.6 billion CAD deficit versus the projected 1.5 billion CAD surplus while the previous figure suffered a downgrade. ANZ reported a 0.9% pickup in job advertisements but it was weaker compared to the previous 1.6% gain. Canadian Ivey PMI is due today and an improvement from 50.9 to 53.4 is eyed.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way