Forex Major Currencies Outlook (November 1, 2013)

Against the Kiwi and pound, the Greenback struggled to consolidate. Data from the US was mostly better than expected, as the initial jobless claims report showed a 340K figure while the Chicago PMI jumped from 55.7 to 65.9. However, analysts are uncertain whether this report is accurate or if huge downward revisions will be made later on. For today, the US ISM manufacturing PMI is up for release and decline from 56.2 to 55.3. 

EUR

The euro had a massive selloff against all of its counterparts in yesterday’s trading, pushing EUR/USD and EUR/JPY lower by nearly 200 pips. Euro zone reports were all weaker than expected yesterday, with German retail sales printing a surprise 0.4% decline and GfK consumer climate dipping from 7.1 to 7.0. French consumer spending also missed expectations while Italy’s jobless rate posted a higher than expected reading. Overall euro zone unemployment also increased recently. For today, euro zone banks are on a holiday so the low liquidity environment could spark more volatile moves. 

GBP
The British pound struggled to hold on to its current levels, as data from the UK was better than expected. Nationwide reported a 1.0% increase in house price levels, which is good for overall inflation. UK manufacturing PMI is on tap for today and a small decline from 56.7 to 56.3 is expected. A stronger than expected reading though could trigger a relief rally for the pound. 

CHF
The franc was unable to recover against the dollar in yesterday’s trading so it packed up its gains against the euro instead. There were no releases from Switzerland then. Today has the SVME PMI on tap and analysts are expecting to see an uptick from 55.3 to 55.4, reflecting a stronger expansion in the Swiss manufacturing sector. 

JPY

The yen managed to edge higher against most of its major counterparts, pocketing the largest gains against the euro. The BOJ made no changes to monetary policy as expected, but they did upgrade their growth forecast for next year from 1.3% to 1.5%. For 2015, they kept their growth estimate unchanged at 1.5%. Inflation forecasts for the next two years were also maintained. There are no reports due from Japan today so risk sentiment might drive yen pairs around. 

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar edged a bit lower to the dollar while the Loonie was able to recover. Data from Canada was strong, as the monthly GDP reading showed a 0.3% expansion and took the annual reading to a 2.0% increase. Chinese official manufacturing PMI was in line with consensus for October, as the figure improved from 51.1 to 51.4. No other reports are due from the comdoll economies today so risk sentiment and potential profit-taking could play a central role in price action. 

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way