Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 21, 2014)

The headline CPI reading came in better than expectations of a flat figure instead of the projected 0.1% decline while the core CPI marked a 0.2% uptick as expected. The Philly Fed index also impressed as it surged from 20.7 to 40.8, reflecting a considerable pickup in manufacturing expansion. However, the flash manufacturing PMI fell from 55.9 to 54.7, suggesting that the industry wasn’t as strong as expected.

EUR

The euro seemed unfazed by the latest round of weak PMI figures from Germany and France, as the shared currency managed to hold steady against the US dollar. All the figures came in weaker than expected and reflected weaker expansion or a sharper contraction, with the exception of the French services PMI which was as expected at 48.8. This was enough to convince traders that a euro zone recession is still likely, although this scenario has long been priced in. ECB President Draghi is set to give a testimony today.

GBP

The pound had another quick bounce, thanks to stronger than expected UK retail sales data. Consumer spending picked up by 0.8% instead of the projected 0.4% increase, enough to make up for the 0.3% decline in the previous month. Only the UK public sector borrowing report is expected today and it might not have much of an impact on pound movement.

CHF

The franc gave up some of its recent wins to the euro as traders continued to speculate about SNB intervention. Swiss trade balance was actually better than expected at a surplus of 3.26 billion CHF versus the estimated 2.57 billion CHF while the previous reading was upgraded. There are no reports up for release from Switzerland today.

JPY

The yen continued its descent to its counterparts, although there was a bit of recovery seen at the start of today’s Asian trading session. Japan’s flash manufacturing PMI came in weaker than expected, leading many to agree that the economy is in for more weakness in the coming months. There are no reports due from Japan today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls staged a decent recovery in recent trading sessions, as traders probably booked profits off key levels. New Zealand credit card spending picked up 6.7% recently, stronger than the previous 4.5% gain. For today, Canadian CPI figures are due and the headline figure could show a 0.3% decline while the core figure might print a 0.2% uptick.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way