Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 20, 2014)

While there was a debate regarding dropping the “considerable time” wording in keeping rates low after easing ends, policymakers confirmed that inflation concerns have eased and that the US economy could stay resilient despite the ongoing downturn in the global economy. US CPI figures are up for release today and this could add support to the Fed’s improved inflation outlook, with policymakers projecting that annual CPI could soon reach target levels once more.

EUR

The euro managed to put up a strong fight in recent trading, thanks to stronger than expected current account data. The surplus widened from an upgraded 22.8 billion EUR to 30.0 billion EUR instead of narrowing to the projected 21.3 billion EUR figure. For today, the German and French manufacturing and services PMIs are up for release and these might dictate euro behavior for the rest of the week. Small improvements are eyed, with some figures likely to indicate stronger expansion in the industries.

GBP

The pound had a relief rally in yesterday’s London session since the BOE minutes weren’t as dovish as expected. A couple of policymakers still voted to hike rates during their meeting but inflation concerns outweighed their hawkish biases. UK retail sales data is up for release today and a 0.4% rebound is eyed to follow the previous 0.3% decline, which might allow the pound to extend its rally.

CHF

The franc continued to tread carefully against the euro in recent sessions, as traders awaited more clues regarding potential SNB intervention and the gold initiative. Swiss ZEW economic expectations saw an improvement from -30.7 to -7.6, reflecting a reduction in pessimism. Swiss trade balance is up for release today and a weak reading might renew clamor for SNB intervention, although the surplus is estimated to widen from 2.45 billion CHF to 2.57 billion CHF.

JPY

The yen lost further ground to its counterparts even as the BOJ didn’t announce any major changes to monetary policy. Governor Kuroda gained more support for their easing program, as only one member dissented in expanding the monetary base by an annual pace of 80 trillion JPY. Policymakers still retained their upbeat outlook for the economy and mentioned that there might be no need to delay the tax hike as the government needs revenue.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls gave up ground recently, as Australia’s MI inflation expectations index stayed flat while New Zealand released weaker than expected PPI figures. Input producer prices marked a 1.5% decline instead of the projected 0.3% uptick while output producer prices saw a 1.1% drop instead of the expected 0.2% increase. Canadian wholesale sales data is due today and a stronger 0.7% increase is expected.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way