Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 04, 2016)

Initial jobless claims showed a larger rise while unit labor costs indicated downside pressure on wages. The NFP report is due today and a 174K gain is eyed, which might be enough to bring the jobless rate down from 5.0% to 4.9%. 

EUR

The euro was slightly weaker against its peers, although it was able to squeeze out a few more gains against the commodity currencies. Euro zone data was mixed, with the Spanish unemployment change figure coming in better than expected and the Italian jobs report falling short of consensus. Final services PMI readings are due from the region's top economies today.

GBP

The pound staged a strong rally after the British High Court ruled that the UK government would need the parliament's approval before officially invoking Article 50. This could mean more delays before the negotiation process begins, postponing the official Brexit date as well. The UK government is still set to appeal this decision to the supreme court by December 7. The BOE kept rates on hold as expected, issuing a slightly less dovish statement than usual. There are no reports due from the UK today but Brexit-related headlines could push pound pairs around.

CHF

The franc gave up some of its recent wins to the European currencies after the British High Court decision, as risk appetite improved in the region. Swiss SECO consumer climate improved from -15 to -13 as expected, reflecting a smaller degree of pessimism. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today.

JPY

The yen weakened slightly against its peers during the Japanese bank holiday as risk appetite improved somewhat. There were no reports out of Japan yesterday and none are due today so market sentiment could be the main driver of yen price action.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls took advantage of dollar and yen weakness but were no match to euro and pound strength. Australia printed a strong trade balance buoyed by a 2% gain in exports and a stronger than expected 0.6% gain in retail sales. Canada's jobs report is due today and a 10K drop in hiring is expected. The Ivey PMI is also due and a slide from 58.4 to 56.2 is expected.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way