Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 8, 2014)

Not even Yellen’s relatively cautious speech was enough to force the dollar to retreat. The Fed head retracted her six-month rate hike forecast after asset purchases end, as she noted that there are still plenty of challenges facing the US economy. Preliminary non-farm productivity and unit labor costs both came in stronger than expected though. Initial jobless claims are up for release today, along with another testimony by Yellen.

EUR

The euro edged slightly lower to the US dollar and Japanese yen in the latest trading sessions when data from the euro zone came in below expectations. German factory orders slipped by 2.8% while French industrial production made a 0.7% decline. The main event for today is the ECB interest rate decision, with the central bank expected to announce easing measures or give dovish remarks on economic activity.

GBP

The pound retreated upon hitting the minor psychological resistance of 1.6950 to the US dollar, as the lack of data from the UK kept the bulls at bay. For today, the BOE interest rate decision is scheduled and this might push the pound back in rally mode if the remarks are dovish. Take note though that traders might opt to wait for the minutes of the monetary policy meeting to get more clues on future BOE moves.

CHF

The franc gave up most of its recent gains to the euro and the dollar as foreign currency reserves data showed that the central bank can still afford to defend its currency peg. The SNB has recently indicated that it will not hesitate to intervene if necessary, which convinced franc bulls to be a little more cautious. Swiss SECO consumer climate and CPI are up for release today and strong data could provide support for the Swissy.

JPY

The yen paused from its rally in yesterday’s trading sessions and lost ground to the Aussie and US dollar. It continued to consolidate to the pound and euro, as these currencies are awaiting central bank decisions. There have been no major reports released from Japan recently and none are due today, as the currency is being driven mostly by risk sentiment.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The New Zealand dollar posted massive losses yesterday when RBNZ Governor Wheeler warned that the central bank is ready to intervene if the Kiwi keeps rallying and winds up hurting inflation and exports. Recall that the latest dairy auction showed a decline in prices, which means that the Kiwi might be partly to blame for industry weakness. In Australia, the jobs report came in much better than expected with a 14.2K increase in hiring that allowed the jobless rate to hold steady at 5.8%. Canadian housing starts data is up for release later today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way