Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 8, 2013)

For one, Australia underwent a rate cut from the RBA while the RBNZ financial stability report highlighted the weaknesses in the New Zealand economy. European pairs also tumbled as risk appetite was down for the rest of the trading day. There were no major reports released from the U.S. and none are due for today. Watch out for a couple of speeches from top U.S. finance officers, namely Treasury Secretary Lew and FOMC member Stein.

EUR

It was a mixed day for the euro yesterday as France printed weaker than expected industrial production data while Germany posted stronger than estimated factory orders figures. French industrial production slipped by 0.9% while German factory orders jumped by 2.2%. For today, there are no reports due from the euro zone as French banks are on a holiday. With that, expect lower liquidity and possibly higher volatility in today’s London session.

GBP

After days of consolidating between 1.5550 and 1.5600, GBP/USD broke down and reached the 1.5450 support area. There were no major reports released from the U.K. then but expectations of dovishness from the BOE in their rate statement this week seems to be weighing on the pair as early as today. BRC retail sales posted a 2.2% decline, erasing the 1.9% gain seen in the previous month, while the Halifax HPI is set for release. Further weakness in the housing market could push GBP/USD even lower today.

CHF

Swiss reports were generally mixed yesterday as the SECO consumer climate figure disappointed while the foreign currency reserves of the SNB showed a bit of improvement. Reserves of foreign currencies declined for the month, as the central bank is having an easier time defending its EUR/CHF peg. However, the SECO consumer climate figure climbed from -6 to -5 only, instead of improving to -3. Swiss CPI is due later on today and another weak figure could drag the Swiss franc lower.

JPY

Yen pairs barely saw any action in yesterday’s trading as traders awaited more data from most major economies. The yen pairs that did budge moved to the downside as risk remained off. There are no reports due from the Japan lately so yen pairs could continue to trade on market sentiment, with a risk on environment causing losses for the lower-yielding yen.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)

The RBA’s surprise rate cut weighed on the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar in yesterday’s trading but the Loonie seemed more resilient. The RBNZ’s financial stability report pinpointed the prevailing weaknesses in the economy, prompting market participants to think that the central bank might cut rates as well. Chinese trade balance came in strong earlier today, providing support for the comdolls, but the Kiwi’s fate could rest on the upcoming New Zealand jobs data release.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way