Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 7, 2015)

The ADP non-farm employment change showed a 169K increase in hiring versus expectations of a 199K gain for April while the previous month’s reading suffered a downgrade. This set the tone for another NFP disappointment, which could lead to lower expectations of a Fed rate hike this year and more losses for the dollar. Only the US initial jobless claims and Challenger job cuts data are due today.

EUR

The euro continued to climb against most of its forex counterparts in recent trading, as traders liquidated their previous short positions in hopes that the region’s debt troubles are about to be solved. Economic data came in mostly stronger than expected, as Spain and Italy showed better than expected services PMI readings. However, retail sales came in weaker than expected with a  0.8% decline versus estimates of a 0.4% dip. German factory orders, French industrial production, and trade balance are up for release today and strong readings could keep the euro afloat.

GBP

The pound made a quick recovery when the services PMI showed stronger than expected results. The reading climbed from 58.9 to 59.5 instead of falling to the projected 58.6 figure. There are no reports due from the UK today as traders focus their attention on the elections and the possibility of seeing either a minority government or a coalition government, both of which might weigh on the currency moving forward.

CHF

The franc resumed its climb in recent trading sessions, despite the lack of top-tier reports from Switzerland. For today, the SECO consumer climate report is due, along with the Swiss foreign currency reserves. Improvements in consumer sentiment could allow the franc to extend its rally while the foreign currency reserves report could show if the SNB intervened recently.

JPY

Most yen pairs had limited movement in recent trading sessions, as Japanese traders are still on holiday. There have been no reports released from Japan, which means that risk sentiment is primarily responsible for yen price action lately. There are still no reports lined up from Japan today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls weren’t able to take much advantage of dollar weakness, as the Aussie and Kiwi are weighed down by dovish monetary policy biases. Australia reported a weaker than expected retail sales figure and a downside surprise in its latest jobs report, following New Zealand’s bleak quarterly employment release. Canada’s Ivey PMI was stronger than expected at 58.2, representing a huge jump from the previous 47.9 reading.  Canadian building permits are due later today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way