Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 6, 2014)

US trade balance is up for release today and might show a smaller trade deficit, which could provide support for the Greenback. Other than that, risk sentiment is expected to be the main driver of forex price movement in the next few hours.

EUR

The euro is still stuck in consolidation to most of its major counterparts, as traders sit on the edge of their seats ahead of the ECB interest rate decision later on this week. Euro zone Sentix investor confidence was weaker than expected, as the reading slipped from 14.1 to 12.8 instead of improving to 14.2. EU officials lowered their euro zone growth and inflation forecasts as expected, lending more support to potential easing from the ECB. Spanish and Italian services PMI are due today, along with Spain’s employment change report.

GBP

The pound struggled to edge higher in recent trading as the lack of liquidity kept the currency in consolidation for the most part. UK traders return to their desks today from yesterday’s holiday and this might spark more action for pound pairs. UK services PMI is also due today and might show a rise from 57.6 to 57.9, indicating a stronger expansion in the industry which comprises a huge chunk of the country’s overall economic growth.

CHF

The franc was stuck in consolidation to the dollar during the recent trading sessions, thanks to the lack of catalysts from Switzerland. There are still no reports lined up for today, which suggests that more sideways movement might be seen. Traders could wait for Yellen’s speech in Congress tomorrow before deciding on the longer-term direction for USD/CHF.

JPY

The yen erased most of its recent gains in yesterday’s trading sessions as risk appetite picked up in the markets. Japanese traders were on holiday then and are still on holiday today, which suggests that overall market sentiment could be responsible for the yen’s price movement again.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD) 

The comdolls made small rebounds in recent trading, as NZD/USD edged closer to the .8700 handle while USD/CAD tested 1.0950. Data from Australia and China have been weaker than expected and there were no reports released from Canada or New Zealand. Today, the RBA will make its rate decision and probably announce no monetary policy changes. However, downbeat remarks on the economy could lead to losses for the Aussie. Canadian trade balance and Ivey PMI are up for release in today’s US trading session, with a larger trade surplus and a lower manufacturing PMI expected. New Zealand quarterly employment data is also coming up and weaker hiring figures are expected.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way