Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 15, 2013)

Today’s set of economic data could confirm if the Fed will be moving closer to implementing their exit plan, as the U.S. will be printing its Empire State manufacturing index, PPI, and industrial production data. The Empire State index is projected to improve from 3.1 to 3.6 while producer prices are likely to post small upticks. Note that worse than expected figures could convince traders that the Fed isn’t likely to wind down their asset purchases anytime soon, which could force the dollar to return some of its recent gains.

EUR 

Euro zone GDP is set to come in weaker than the estimated -0.1% figure for Q1 2013, as France and Germany have both posted lower than expected growth. The French economy contracted by 0.2%, worse than the estimated 0.1% dip, while the German economy posted a mere 0.1% uptick for the quarter. Italian GDP is still set to be printed but the odds seem to favor a downside surprise, as analysts predict a 0.4% drop in economic growth. Overall, this should weigh on the region’s GDP, which could come in negative and mark the euro zone’s sixth quarter in recession.

GBP 

The U.K. will be printing is claimant count change and releasing its BOE inflation report in today’s London session. Another gain in hiring is projected to follow the previous month’s 7.0K drop in claimants, which should be enough to keep the jobless rate steady at 7.9%. However, worse than expected jobs data could worsen the pound’s slide against the U.S. dollar, possibly pushing GBP/USD below the 1.5200 major psychological level.

CHF 

Switzerland is set to release its ZEW economic expectations figure and PPI figures in today’s European session. The ZEW report could show a drop from the previous month’s 20.0 reading as recent economic data from Switzerland have disappointed while the PPI report is slated to show a 0.2% drop in producer prices. Downbeat reports could continue to weigh on the franc, which is already undergoing heavy selling pressure against the U.S. dollar.

JPY 

The Japanese yen resumed its selloff in today’s Asian session as Japan’s tertiary industry activity index disappointed and posted a 1.3% drop in services activity. This was way off the estimated 0.6% decline and enough to erase the 1.2% increase seen in the previous period. Consumer confidence in Japan also weakened, with the index falling from 44.8 to 44.5 instead of rising to the estimated 45.8 reading.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD) 

The commodity currencies still sold off against the dollar although at a slower pace in yesterday’s trading. These pairs are currently nearing significant inflection points on longer-term time frames, which explains why price movement is stalling. Perhaps markets are awaiting more catalysts or confirmation from the U.S. economy that could allow these selloff to resume.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way